PLAYER PROFILE: GABRIEL PEC

Vasco de Gama had an underwhelming season being in 15th place after being promoted from Serie B. They missed out on Copa Sudamericana but avoided relegation. Excluding the relegation challenge, Galaxy were in a similar boat. They missed expanded playoffs by 8 points and were near the bottom with only Inter, Toronto, and Colorado being worse. While they were better offensively than nearly half of the teams in the playoffs, they had the worst defense in the entire league.

The recently promoted Vasco da Gama struggled last season.

Gabriel Pec will be joining an LA Galaxy that had the 2nd highest possession compared to 11th of Vasco da Gama. Of course, Serie A is a better league than the MLS, but the Galaxy also had the most accurate passers in the league (456) compared to Vasco da Gama (334). They aren’t a noteworthy team in terms of intensity or turnovers like Red Bulls or LAFC. Most of the control they have on the pitch is in the middle third of the field, but they do find themselves often in the zones of space Tyler Boyd was operating in, which is where Gabriel Pec will most likely be. Tyler Boyd spent at least 1000 minutes on the RW and at least another 600 on the LW. The final numbers are muddy due to how often he would switch sides, with at least 10 games this past season registering him having played on both wings.

Tyler Boyd tied Riqui Puig on highest goal tally for the team with 7. He added 4 assists to his stats for the season and provided memorable moments against LAFC at the Rose Bowl and on another El Traffico last season. Tyler was also flexible on which side of the field he was on but preferred his right foot. His xG was 4.24, with some of those goals coming from outside-the-box shots.

His assist count, 4, wasn’t great, being around 40th (FBREF) place in the league, but his xAG was at 7.2. That puts him in 11th place in the league. Joveljić and Hernandez struggled to find the net this last year with both having a combined 12.7 xG, but only finding the net 7 times. Their misfiring could be part of the reason that the assists for Boyd aren’t higher. Now of publishing this, Joveljić and Miguel Barry are the biggest strikers on the roster and no other DP winger has been signed, yet.

Pec played for a squad that scored fewer goals than the Galaxy. He was their 2nd highest scorer, tied 1st on assists, and had the biggest chances created for the team. He underperformed his xG of 9.08 and missed 5 big chances. Vasco da Gama didn’t have many games where they led possession in comparison to LA Galaxy. They were also coming up from Serie B, compared to a LA Galaxy that should have been competing for higher playoff positions.

FBChart’s Inverted Winger Template. At Galaxy, Pec’s numbers in possession should increase

Pec and Boyd are more similar as players than they are different. While Boyd is more likely to switch the play and Pec is more likely to finish his run more often, both play on both wings, commit a similar number of tackles, and don’t create as much as other wingers. Neither were in the top tiers of their respective categories for offensive actions.

In pre-season, we’ve seen buildup from the back with the two CB’s, one of the fullbacks, and Puig or another midfielder dropping to be an option with the ball. From there the 6 has been the pivot and you’ll see one fullback wide on one side with the other side having the winger stretch the field. You’ll see the other midfielder further up the pitch and the second winger, on the side of the offensive fullback, be tucked inside near the striker.

Preason match against RBNY. Last match of preseason in Coachella, first win. No one presses quite like RBNY.

We could see Gabriel Pec being either of these wingers, the one tucked inside the box or out wide creating space. Of the 8 goals Pec scored last season in Serie A, all of them were inside the box and all but one was further than the penalty spot (a defensive mishap from the Fluminese CBs that led to him being open on goal with just the keeper to face).

In the last calendar year (2023), Gabriel Pec had 100 shots. 74 were with his left foot, and 16 of those shots were with his right. In that same time frame, he had 5 assists, all on the right side of the field. If we split the field in half, most of his shots were from the right side of the field. For assists, it’s the same. His crossing patterns have him crossing from all over the final third, most being hit in the center of the penalty area or the left edge of the goal area.

Since we’re focusing on the final third, any delivery inside the penalty area, including a pass, cross, or carry, are most successful from the right. With 21 carries and over 80% passing success rate, the data shows he’s most effective on the right side. For dribbling, continuing to look at the past year, he was attempting 5.81 dribbles per game, succeeding in 2.95 (Data from Wyscout). When he succeeded on a dribble on the left side of the field, it was highly likely he would go for a shot, although none were goals. This isn’t to say he won’t find success on the left side of the pitch in the MLS, we see it with his goals and assists while in Serie B, but it shows why we think he’s most likely to be a replacement for Boyd due to the success on that side of the pitch.

If we had to guess what to expect for Pec joining the LA Galaxy there are a few things. Based on Boyd’s numbers for last season, we should expect him to have more touches and passes with an increase of 20%-33% in both categories. Gabriel Pec likes to ask for the ball and puts himself into a position where he is an available option to shoot, cross, or carry the ball. I expect his numbers to be similar in terms of shots and shots on target.

For goals, matching the screamers that Boyd hit might not be as easy, but I do think we’ll see him replicating his tap-in goals coming from being the late run to the second post or off a rebound. With that sort of price tag, I would expect a similar output to Tyler Boyd on goals but wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit double digits with teammates like Riqui Puig and Fagundez providing key passes.

The assist count should be at least the same, a decent amount of what he’ll hit does depend on the success of Dejan and Miguel. Having confidence that Dejan will be better than last year, I’d say we should see a few more assists than Boyd.

Part of the reason Tyler Boyd will be missed is because of his goals against LAFC. They were emotional and during key moments of those games. The last few seasons, most of the favorable memories of Galaxy fans are due to how their players perform in El Traffico.

The team has had glimpses of what a good team could look like, but rarely convince and can’t outpace the goals they leak. Gabriel Pec is coming in with a Designated Player tag and that’ll be pressure for him to perform in big matches and just throughout the season. If he can perform at the levels of his predecessor and if that defense can let in less goals, it should be a playoff-bound team with some exciting attacking talents.